On Northern Ireland - I would caution against the demographic narrative. There was a good X thread recently (can't find it) breaking down how the growth in Catholics/decline in Prods is a mix of a) an increased foreign Catholic population, and b) more Prods declaring "no religion" than Catholics.
This of course has not stopped local media seizing this story and running with it. Remember, nationalists have held a remarkably consistent 40ish% vote share over the last 25 years; SF growth coming from the collapse of the SDLP, not new nationalist/catholic votes.
Your first paragraph was spot on. Ignore the superficial - the Union remains firm!
If Farry wins North Down, it's nothing to do with Farry, it's a split vote between Collins and Easton. Furthermore, Easton could have been a bit more professional in his campaign.
Jenrick keeping his seat was a pleasant suprise
Finished this just in time. You're right about Barnsley - "actually pretty nice" should be the town's official slogan.
On Northern Ireland - I would caution against the demographic narrative. There was a good X thread recently (can't find it) breaking down how the growth in Catholics/decline in Prods is a mix of a) an increased foreign Catholic population, and b) more Prods declaring "no religion" than Catholics.
This of course has not stopped local media seizing this story and running with it. Remember, nationalists have held a remarkably consistent 40ish% vote share over the last 25 years; SF growth coming from the collapse of the SDLP, not new nationalist/catholic votes.
Your first paragraph was spot on. Ignore the superficial - the Union remains firm!
If Farry wins North Down, it's nothing to do with Farry, it's a split vote between Collins and Easton. Furthermore, Easton could have been a bit more professional in his campaign.