This is pretty astute. I lived in Japan from 2003-2011, and still visit each year to see relatives. I love the bones of the place. But it has serious problems, which you rightly identify. The big difference between Japan and Britain, though, is that at least Japanese politicians have a sense that there is such a thing as the ‘national interest’ and at least ordinary Japanese people feel a sense of patriotic belonging to a national project of some kind. This matters.
I live in ruralish Japan. Not the places of major depopulation, but not a major city. I think you may have missed a couple of things. First Japan can still build things. Yes they have stunning inefficiencies in labour practices, yes they have a byzantine bureaucracy, but yet they can still build. You can't have missed the new skyscrapers in Tokyo. What you may have missed though are the new factories. TSMC is starting the process of building a third fab in Kumamoto. Fab 1 is, I believe operational and fab 2 is nearly done. All this happened since 2021/2022. In my neck of the woods, Murata, which makes capacitors and other electronic components, opened a new factory a year or so ago not far away and is building another in a different place that will open soon. That goes with the two or three existing factories it has in the area. While it is delayed, the Maglev Chuo Shinkansen is under construction between Tokyo and Nagoya. Yes it'll be a few years late (maybe 7 maybe 10) but it's progressing better than HS2 despite being built in significantly harder terrain and being mostly in tunnels.
Second and related, Japan can still make things to export. Yes it has a horrible national debt and many of its companies have bureaucratic inertia that is as bad as a government, but it also has a big trade surplus with most countries and its industries are still world leaders. Britain has a handful of world leading firms - ARM, Dyson and...? - Japan has dozens in all kinds of sectors.
Third, while in general you are quite correct that Japan has a fertility problem, this is not universal. Ruralish Japan does not have it as bad. I regularly see families with three children in tow. The trick is undoubtedly that cramped urban conditions are not conducive to reproduction. Hence the government efforts to convince the younger people in large metro areas to do the "U-turn" or "I-turn" and move to smaller places where they can afford a decent sized house and thus have the space to raise multiple children. I don't know if this will work, no one does, but with companies building factories in these areas there are jobs to go to - jobs that are currently partly filled by guest workers from Brazil, Vietnam and the Indian subcontinent - and plenty of land to build new houses on so it may well work. It just won't work quickly.
I see plenty of things Britain could usefully learn from Japan about being a country
This is pretty astute. I lived in Japan from 2003-2011, and still visit each year to see relatives. I love the bones of the place. But it has serious problems, which you rightly identify. The big difference between Japan and Britain, though, is that at least Japanese politicians have a sense that there is such a thing as the ‘national interest’ and at least ordinary Japanese people feel a sense of patriotic belonging to a national project of some kind. This matters.
Fascinating, but Japan is still a tremendous success compared to the vast majority of Earth's nations.
I live in ruralish Japan. Not the places of major depopulation, but not a major city. I think you may have missed a couple of things. First Japan can still build things. Yes they have stunning inefficiencies in labour practices, yes they have a byzantine bureaucracy, but yet they can still build. You can't have missed the new skyscrapers in Tokyo. What you may have missed though are the new factories. TSMC is starting the process of building a third fab in Kumamoto. Fab 1 is, I believe operational and fab 2 is nearly done. All this happened since 2021/2022. In my neck of the woods, Murata, which makes capacitors and other electronic components, opened a new factory a year or so ago not far away and is building another in a different place that will open soon. That goes with the two or three existing factories it has in the area. While it is delayed, the Maglev Chuo Shinkansen is under construction between Tokyo and Nagoya. Yes it'll be a few years late (maybe 7 maybe 10) but it's progressing better than HS2 despite being built in significantly harder terrain and being mostly in tunnels.
Second and related, Japan can still make things to export. Yes it has a horrible national debt and many of its companies have bureaucratic inertia that is as bad as a government, but it also has a big trade surplus with most countries and its industries are still world leaders. Britain has a handful of world leading firms - ARM, Dyson and...? - Japan has dozens in all kinds of sectors.
Third, while in general you are quite correct that Japan has a fertility problem, this is not universal. Ruralish Japan does not have it as bad. I regularly see families with three children in tow. The trick is undoubtedly that cramped urban conditions are not conducive to reproduction. Hence the government efforts to convince the younger people in large metro areas to do the "U-turn" or "I-turn" and move to smaller places where they can afford a decent sized house and thus have the space to raise multiple children. I don't know if this will work, no one does, but with companies building factories in these areas there are jobs to go to - jobs that are currently partly filled by guest workers from Brazil, Vietnam and the Indian subcontinent - and plenty of land to build new houses on so it may well work. It just won't work quickly.
I see plenty of things Britain could usefully learn from Japan about being a country
Congratulations!
A very interesting piece. Thankyou.