Very nice work. Most people are barely even aware of the striver problem and you've gone and articulated it end to end. I'd have perhaps appreciated a bit more misogyny, but excellent work.
I know I am extremely late to the party when commenting on this piece, but it has been on my mind for a few weeks. When one looks at a variety of states with different systems in place that some theorise as helping fertility, one sees that many of these states have below replacement level fertility. To use some examples:
- Theocracy: Iran has a TFR of 1.69.
- Nationalism: Azerbaijan, an extremely nationalistic state, has a TFR of 1.52.
- Social conservatism and implementing various pro-natal policies: Hungary has a TFR of 1.5.
- Social democracy with lots of child benefits etc: Sweden has a TFR of 1.5.
Meanwhile, Israel is an extremely crowded country where the Bank of Israel has deliberately stoked house-price inflation since 2008. In spite of this, Israeli Jews have a TFR of 2.9, which is much higher than Jews elsewhere. The documentary Birth Gap explores this and argues, quite successfully, that birth rates are mimetic. Individuals in a post contraceptive world look around and will have as many kids as the rest of their cohort. With an increasing number of childless people, those who do have children have fewer children. Israel was following a similar path with the TFR dropping from 3.9 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1992. Afterwards, the TFR climbed to 3.1 in 2016 and now hovers around 2.9. Part of this is likely due to the Haredi population reaching 4% in 1980 and increasing to 13.6% in 2023. Whilst the TFR of 6.64 of the Haredi has likely boosted the population, it seems as if it has also encouraged other Israelis to have more children, including secular Israelis (TFR of 2 or 2.5). Your points about Korean schooling being particularly toxic are correct, but it feels as if the best way to boost fertility is to meme it into existence. If people are used to seeing middle class families of super-breeders (whilst Haredi employment rates are below that of non-Haredi Jews, they are increasing whilst still continuing to breed like rabbits). I agree with pushing points about "affordable family formation" in propaganda, but it feels as if the main way to boost fertility is memes.
Very nice work. Most people are barely even aware of the striver problem and you've gone and articulated it end to end. I'd have perhaps appreciated a bit more misogyny, but excellent work.
Down with effort. I am very tired.
I know I am extremely late to the party when commenting on this piece, but it has been on my mind for a few weeks. When one looks at a variety of states with different systems in place that some theorise as helping fertility, one sees that many of these states have below replacement level fertility. To use some examples:
- Theocracy: Iran has a TFR of 1.69.
- Nationalism: Azerbaijan, an extremely nationalistic state, has a TFR of 1.52.
- Social conservatism and implementing various pro-natal policies: Hungary has a TFR of 1.5.
- Social democracy with lots of child benefits etc: Sweden has a TFR of 1.5.
Meanwhile, Israel is an extremely crowded country where the Bank of Israel has deliberately stoked house-price inflation since 2008. In spite of this, Israeli Jews have a TFR of 2.9, which is much higher than Jews elsewhere. The documentary Birth Gap explores this and argues, quite successfully, that birth rates are mimetic. Individuals in a post contraceptive world look around and will have as many kids as the rest of their cohort. With an increasing number of childless people, those who do have children have fewer children. Israel was following a similar path with the TFR dropping from 3.9 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1992. Afterwards, the TFR climbed to 3.1 in 2016 and now hovers around 2.9. Part of this is likely due to the Haredi population reaching 4% in 1980 and increasing to 13.6% in 2023. Whilst the TFR of 6.64 of the Haredi has likely boosted the population, it seems as if it has also encouraged other Israelis to have more children, including secular Israelis (TFR of 2 or 2.5). Your points about Korean schooling being particularly toxic are correct, but it feels as if the best way to boost fertility is to meme it into existence. If people are used to seeing middle class families of super-breeders (whilst Haredi employment rates are below that of non-Haredi Jews, they are increasing whilst still continuing to breed like rabbits). I agree with pushing points about "affordable family formation" in propaganda, but it feels as if the main way to boost fertility is memes.
Highlighter girls ready to lose it after reading this essay!
Hi there, I am hoping you would write a piece on the effect that Confucianism might have on IQ.
Thanks.