A fantastic article. Whilst I think that part of the success of Israel is more due to social memes, I still think the point about the idea of there being a sense of purpose is useful. I think I remember there being a slight up-tick in non-Hispanic white fertility rates in the US around the time of the first Trump presidency due to the vague sense of hope. Removing the boot from the necks of the middle classes is something that I hope may increase fertility among the middle and upper classes. Likewise, one would hope that some form of selective education that is much more closely connected to IQ would help (e.g. having it so that one can only go on to A Levels with an IQ above 110 and then have university only for those with an IQ above 120 so that the qualifications have more weight to them and can open more doors than they do nowadays). Anything to boost that sense of hope and help people start having children earlier.
Back in the day Florence had a very high population density, managed nearly unrivaled heights of architecture and very high standards for culture, had a high TFR, and also appears to have had a happy population. Other Italian republics were the same way. Additionally, all of the wonders of the olden days were accomplished with *drastically* lower populations, and *much much* less mechanization. We should be able to do great things and have a great civilization even if 1/4 of the population is busy taking care of old people.
Would you rather live in 1400s or 1600s (pick a century it doesnt have to be that) Florence, upgraded with dishwashers, modern medicine, eyeglasses, indoor plumbing, etc, or some mediocre part of modern Rotterdam or London or whatever? Imagine what the florentines could have done if they had had our technology back in the day. Maybe they wouldn’t have done great things, I don’t know.
There is much more to this story than just money or population demographics. Nearly the entire system is screwed up from top to bottom in a zillion small or large ways.
To me, the single biggest reason for the birth drop is the spread of birth control. Once we have the ability to control when we have kids, most put it off. It benefits both sexes. The increasing use of different forms of birth control transcends other factors like poverty, house prices, religiousity, liberalism, etc.
How do you get around that? Not sure you can. All you can do is go after other factors.
Well Catholics, some Orthodox (and Mormons) consider birth control all evil and it was universally accepted as evil for all Christians until the 1930 at the Lambeth conference. So it doesn’t really transcend all religions and let’s say the Catholic Church had the power to tell the state they cannot violate natural law, it would be able to be stopped
Memes. I believe that a large part of Israel's success in this regard is due to social memes. Whilst the point about the struggle for survival is interesting and probably does have some truth to it, I think part of it is also just the effect of regular contact with Haredi Jews. The TFR was dropping in Israel for a while from 3.9 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1992, but it started increasing again and hovers around 2.9. I feel that part of this is because of the Haredi reaching around 5% of the population and thus having a ripple effect on the population of other groups. Whilst we don't have super-breeder cults like the Haredi or the Amish (TFR 5.5-6.5), I would hope that in a future society where the boot has been taken off of the necks of the middle classes, one may end up seeing more families the size of the Rees-Moggs family.
You’re right the widespread use of contraception is the reason for declining fertility. One of those ones that’s so obvious people forget to bring it up.
Natural selection made sex fun and instantly gratifying, having children was a by product, not the justification.
Not bad. I’m in the middle. I do think that a “GDP Line Must Go Up” attitude is stupid, not to mention promoting immigration as any type of real solution; but at the same time, neglecting birth rates is inadvisable, since nature abhors a vacuum.
Great article, and tou touch upon most salient points with acknowledgement of how they interact.
If I may add another reflection to the list presented - old age pensions. I am surprised that very little mention was made of it and the fact that young Europeans are caught between the monopolies of large businesses on one hand, which hamper entrepreneurs, and the tax burden, which is used to support a very top-heavy population pyramid. I suppose its implicit in the argument that we allow populations to shrink naturally, as that would free up the necessary "space" internally for new generations to grow.
France up to WW2 is an interesting historical example of a population decline that was reversed, and a lot was made of its stagnation, again, with similar debates in the 1930s, until the post-war boom reversed it completely. Perhaps your example of Israel and of society having a mission and a vison for itself is what makes a difference?
If you compared modern day Polands religiosity to any Western nation a hundred years ago, it would look completely secular. Not that long ago women weren’t working, in politics, or allowed to mass slaughter their children. That is what is required to maintain birth rates high enough and those things only happen if a population is virtuous and actually religious, not just proud of their ancestors religion
I agree that the handwringing about fertility is tiresome, and you can’t shame or nag young people into having more children. Population growth never continues to grow in a linear fashion, nor should it. But if it declines somewhat and immigration is controlled, things will get cheaper and maybe then young couples will start to have bigger families. We’re not going extinct! Some of these guys are either insane or have an agenda, I suspect that it’s the latter.
Great article, PJ always of high quality but this is above and beyond.
A fantastic article. Whilst I think that part of the success of Israel is more due to social memes, I still think the point about the idea of there being a sense of purpose is useful. I think I remember there being a slight up-tick in non-Hispanic white fertility rates in the US around the time of the first Trump presidency due to the vague sense of hope. Removing the boot from the necks of the middle classes is something that I hope may increase fertility among the middle and upper classes. Likewise, one would hope that some form of selective education that is much more closely connected to IQ would help (e.g. having it so that one can only go on to A Levels with an IQ above 110 and then have university only for those with an IQ above 120 so that the qualifications have more weight to them and can open more doors than they do nowadays). Anything to boost that sense of hope and help people start having children earlier.
Back in the day Florence had a very high population density, managed nearly unrivaled heights of architecture and very high standards for culture, had a high TFR, and also appears to have had a happy population. Other Italian republics were the same way. Additionally, all of the wonders of the olden days were accomplished with *drastically* lower populations, and *much much* less mechanization. We should be able to do great things and have a great civilization even if 1/4 of the population is busy taking care of old people.
Would you rather live in 1400s or 1600s (pick a century it doesnt have to be that) Florence, upgraded with dishwashers, modern medicine, eyeglasses, indoor plumbing, etc, or some mediocre part of modern Rotterdam or London or whatever? Imagine what the florentines could have done if they had had our technology back in the day. Maybe they wouldn’t have done great things, I don’t know.
There is much more to this story than just money or population demographics. Nearly the entire system is screwed up from top to bottom in a zillion small or large ways.
To me, the single biggest reason for the birth drop is the spread of birth control. Once we have the ability to control when we have kids, most put it off. It benefits both sexes. The increasing use of different forms of birth control transcends other factors like poverty, house prices, religiousity, liberalism, etc.
How do you get around that? Not sure you can. All you can do is go after other factors.
Well Catholics, some Orthodox (and Mormons) consider birth control all evil and it was universally accepted as evil for all Christians until the 1930 at the Lambeth conference. So it doesn’t really transcend all religions and let’s say the Catholic Church had the power to tell the state they cannot violate natural law, it would be able to be stopped
Memes. I believe that a large part of Israel's success in this regard is due to social memes. Whilst the point about the struggle for survival is interesting and probably does have some truth to it, I think part of it is also just the effect of regular contact with Haredi Jews. The TFR was dropping in Israel for a while from 3.9 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1992, but it started increasing again and hovers around 2.9. I feel that part of this is because of the Haredi reaching around 5% of the population and thus having a ripple effect on the population of other groups. Whilst we don't have super-breeder cults like the Haredi or the Amish (TFR 5.5-6.5), I would hope that in a future society where the boot has been taken off of the necks of the middle classes, one may end up seeing more families the size of the Rees-Moggs family.
You’re right the widespread use of contraception is the reason for declining fertility. One of those ones that’s so obvious people forget to bring it up.
Natural selection made sex fun and instantly gratifying, having children was a by product, not the justification.
Not bad. I’m in the middle. I do think that a “GDP Line Must Go Up” attitude is stupid, not to mention promoting immigration as any type of real solution; but at the same time, neglecting birth rates is inadvisable, since nature abhors a vacuum.
Great article, and tou touch upon most salient points with acknowledgement of how they interact.
If I may add another reflection to the list presented - old age pensions. I am surprised that very little mention was made of it and the fact that young Europeans are caught between the monopolies of large businesses on one hand, which hamper entrepreneurs, and the tax burden, which is used to support a very top-heavy population pyramid. I suppose its implicit in the argument that we allow populations to shrink naturally, as that would free up the necessary "space" internally for new generations to grow.
France up to WW2 is an interesting historical example of a population decline that was reversed, and a lot was made of its stagnation, again, with similar debates in the 1930s, until the post-war boom reversed it completely. Perhaps your example of Israel and of society having a mission and a vison for itself is what makes a difference?
If you compared modern day Polands religiosity to any Western nation a hundred years ago, it would look completely secular. Not that long ago women weren’t working, in politics, or allowed to mass slaughter their children. That is what is required to maintain birth rates high enough and those things only happen if a population is virtuous and actually religious, not just proud of their ancestors religion
You forget feminism in the equation
I agree that the handwringing about fertility is tiresome, and you can’t shame or nag young people into having more children. Population growth never continues to grow in a linear fashion, nor should it. But if it declines somewhat and immigration is controlled, things will get cheaper and maybe then young couples will start to have bigger families. We’re not going extinct! Some of these guys are either insane or have an agenda, I suspect that it’s the latter.
It's refreshing to see an article that suggests we focus on what we can control vs what we can't. Seems an obvious idea but it's actually rather rare.
Very well argued.