Despite the bluster from commentators online, Republicans were nervous coming into yesterday’s midterms. Pessimism carries a price tag in Donald Trump’s party, yet some were even willing to concede that a bad night could see the GOP lose the Texas Senate race for the first time in nearly four decades.
If only that was where it ended. The Democrats did indeed take Texas, by over one million votes and nearly twelve points. Their margin in Georgia is now nearing twenty, and has already hit that number in North Carolina. Susan Collins, the Maine Republican who has defied the state’s leftward trend across several electoral cycles, lost 54-46, and Sherrod Brown returned as Senator for Ohio, a state which voted for Trump 55-44 just two years ago, with a five point advantage. More remarkably still, Democrats picked up Iowa, Kansas, and South Carolina, and at time of writing are ahead by a few dozen votes in Mississippi. In 2024, these four states broke for Trump by an average of 17.5%. In Michigan, the Democratic candidate was so odious that his primary challenger, who won 47.55% of the vote, endorsed the Republican. He won comfortably. Alaska’s Senate race remains anybody’s guess.
In the House, Democrats are on track for their biggest majority since 2008, smashing through Republican attempts to build an advantage through redistricting. In North Carolina, the GOP’s new map had sought to entrench them in eleven out of fourteen seats; they will likely win just four. Democrats will be replacing Republicans in five Governor’s Mansions: Nevada, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa, and Texas, giving them control over all manner of electoral processes which will reap dividends for years to come. The national popular vote stands at 56-43 at time of writing, and will continue to widen as California finishes reporting. When all is said and done, the margin is likely to be the biggest since Watergate. Democrats won the Senate popular vote in the Deep South (LA, MS, AL, GA, SC) by more than five points; they won the South as a whole (including TX, OK, AR, TN, NC, VA) by more than nine. Democratic House candidates in Utah won more votes overall than Republicans.
A result worse than this is not plausible for the GOP in today’s deeply partisan America; in fact a result as bad as this was barely plausible just twenty-four hours ago. No stronger a rebuke could be issued. There is no silver lining.
