Skipping rocks across the pond: an American perspective on Trump

A response to ‘The Luigi Mangione Democrats’

Cynicism in politics is a given, but it helps to aim it at the right targets. The Democratic Party’s future doesn’t belong to deranged AOCism, and Trump’s biggest threat isn’t some left-wing uprising — it’s a recession, or the limits of his (unwilling as it may be) making. The record needs to be set straight.

In the autumn of 2016, Michael Anton famously portrayed the looming presidential contest between Democrat Hillary Clinton, the consummate establishment politician, and Republican Donald Trump, the ultimate outsider, as the ‘Flight 93 Election’. Conservatives, Anton argued, needed to grit their teeth, swallow their pride, and pull the lever for Trump. A second Clinton presidency was ‘Russian Roulette with a semi-auto’. With Trump, ‘at least you can spin the cylinder and take your chances’. The electorate agreed.

Instead of the former first lady, senator, and secretary of state, the American people elected the class traitor, a billionaire celebrity real estate mogul turned reality television star who railed against the system he had inhabited for over forty years. For decades, the Democratic Party branded itself as the party of the working class, while the Republican Party earned a reputation as the home of affluent college-educated white professionals. Trump changed that in form and substance. He strenuously opposed trade deals, including the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership, that he feared had or would deindustrialise the American heartland and send stable, well-paying jobs that maintained thousands of communities abroad, especially to China or Mexico. He vigorously opposed both legal and illegal immigration, pledging deportations and a wall while promising to end the H-1B ‘cheap labor’ program and restrict Muslim immigration. Free trade and sky-high legal immigration had been the virtually unquestioned default of both parties’ establishments, with a few notable exceptions, since at least the 1980s.

Perhaps more importantly, Trump dramatically reoriented the American electorate in a manner no less significant than the realignments of William McKinley, Franklin Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan before him. Compared to the 2012 election just four years prior, Trump in 2016 radically increased Republican support among low- and middle-income families and union households while shedding wealthy voters. Similarly, college-educated voters flocked in droves into the Democratic column while less-educated Americans moved behind Trump. The realignment of Trumpian democracy is multivariate. Combining a brash, brawling brand of anti-elite populism reminiscent of the Jacksonian Era with stardom and virtually universal name recognition, Trump was the man for the moment. From his lack of obvious open contempt for white or working-class Americans to his penchant for fast food, there was something paradoxically relatable about Trump to tens of millions of people. True, Clinton carried the 2016 popular vote by nearly 3 million, and faithless electors abounded, but the realignment was well underway.

Our colleagues at the Pimlico Journal seem to take the view that was so popular in polite society during the first Trump term: that Trump is a fluke, and his flash-in-the-pan coalition of the dispossessed is doomed to disintegrate. Most of the then chattering classes then argued that Trump’s improbable victory was the dying gasp of a white Christian America that is doomed to die. ‘Demographics are destiny’, they insisted.

Our Atlantic counterparts doubt the longevity of Trumpism for a variety of reasons. They argue the ever-constricting walls will finally close in on Trump because of, to name a few theories, the business activities of Donald Trump Jr., the eccentricities of Elon Musk, the legacies of left-wing luminaries such as Bernie Sanders and Luigi Magione coming to fruition, the prevalence of obnoxious right-wing grifters in the administration, and the rise of a populist left beneath the banner of figure such as the incorrigible Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. These are all formidable obstacles for the second Trump term, but this analysis falls short. The Trump realignment is here to stay. Trump may well fail due to a recession or other external obstacles, but his coalition and unorthodox policies will live on. The Grand Old Party cannot be successfully tarred as the oligarchic party while the Democratic Party exists in its current incarnation, and Europe barely features in the equation whatsoever.

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The most substantive of Pimlico Journal’s assertions is that the Trump coalition will be displaced by an ascendant Democratic Party that trades fashionable social liberalism for genuine economic populism. The Democrats will, of course, find their feet. No trend in politics lasts forever and an economic downturn, which economists rate as increasingly likely, will leave an opening for the Left. Democrats are already trying to tie Trump to stubbornly high prices, as seen when the execrable Chuck Schumer waved around an avocado and Corona while weeping crocodile tears about Americans’ ‘Super Bowl guac’. If Democrats bolted to the centre à la Bill Clinton after the 1994 Republican Revolution, they would be set up for success in 2026, 2028, and beyond. However, the contemporary Democratic Party is constitutionally incapable of making such a prudent adjustment.

Today, the messaging and priorities of the Party of Andrew Jackson reflect the interests and sentiments of their golden calf: college-educated, unmarried young white women. The Democrats are essentially catering to the smallest constituency possible. Theirs is a party run on ‘luxury beliefs’ and weaponised empathy. Clinton saw that the American people disliked crime and welfarism and moved to the Right on both issues. He signed the toughest law enforcement bill in decades as well as work requirements for welfare programs. Democrats today see that the American people dislike a border flung open wider than Bonnie Blue’s legs and men causing women brain damage in volleyball. But instead of emulating Clinton, the Democrats, after Trump took office for the second time, overwhelmingly voted against the mandated detainment of illegal immigrants who commit additional crimes and the prohibition of men in women’s sports.

A party that gleefully lunges forth to take the ‘20’ sides of as many 80-20 issues as possible is not exactly seizing the day. That is not to say that Democrats cannot taste electoral success in the near future. The excesses of Trump and a souring economic mood mean that, on the contrary, they probably will. But that does not mean that Trump’s coalition will be torn asunder and replaced by a genuinely economically populist Democratic Party spearheaded by The Squad. Ocasio-Cortez and her ilk reek of extremism and social insanity to a critical mass of the American people. When she inevitably runs for president, she will be strong in the Democratic primary and weak in the general election. A terrible rerun of the McGovern debacle: a rainbow leading not to a pot of gold, but to political damnation.

Democrats, in modern American political history, almost always win presidential elections by pretending to be moderate Republicans. Carter in 1976, Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Obama in 2008, and Biden in 2020 proved as much. Obama in 2012 is an arguable exception given his open infatuation with progressive identity politics, but even then he made the campaign about bread and butter issues without calling for economic revolution in the mold of Sanders or Ocasio-Cortez.

Democrats will either continue to be socially radical and keep paying an electoral price, or continue to be socially radical and earn victories due to dissatisfaction with Trump and a robust turnout advantage. What will not happen is the Democrats pivoting to an economically-focused, genuinely populist message without the fondness for alphabet soup and open borders.

What’s more, the Democratic Party cannot believably cast itself as being for the common man and their rival as being for the oligarchs, no matter how much they bleat and moan about unelected billionaires like Elon Musk exerting so much influence. The reality of the dynamic between the two parties simply will not allow for that. The Democratic Party is now the home of the educated and wealthy. The Republican Party is now the home of the less educated and less wealthy. In 2024, Democrats carried voters earning $100,000 or more. They also won voters with a bachelor’s degree or more. Trump, meanwhile, carried the middle class and working poor as well as those with less than a college education, while winning a whopping 45 percent (extraordinary for a Republican) of voters in union households. Democrats also exert almost total institutional control over American public life.

From the academy and Hollywood to Fortune 500 companies and major law firms, almost every dominant institution leans heavily left in donations, influence, and marketing. There is no world in which Democrats can portray themselves as ‘against oligarchy’ or ‘fighting the system’. That is because they are the oligarchs who run the system, and that has only become more and more true during the Trump era.

The business dealings of Donald Trump Jr. will not be the undoing of the second Trump administration. It is possible, nay, probable, that Jr. is willing to mix business and politics in a manner that the bulk of the American electorate finds unseemly. No doubt he yearns to build Trump Towers in Gaza City and Nunavut while peddling bogus cryptocurrencies to the more gullible devotees of his father’s cult of personality.

You can hear the clamor of an impending corruption scandal across thousands of nautical miles. Don Jr., ‘Shit Coin’. ‘Oh, it's surely over, indeed.’ He will become the next Hawk Tuah Girl: banished to obscurity, taking the Trump legacy with him. Fate will catch up to Don Jr., as the American public awakens, spurred by the precedent set by the former octogenarian president pardoning his disgraced, criminal son, Hunter.

Truth be told, many Democratic politicians condemned the move. The board is set, and there is no turning the clock back to some idyllic era when nepotism and familial kickbacks were not the norm. Contemptible as they may be, such practices have existed across presidencies — from Clinton stealing White House furniture, to the golden age of Camelot. The baby was thrown out with the bathwater the moment RFK Sr. ascended to become America’s top cop.

The corruption of the Biden administration and family removed any hopes Democrats may have entertained on finally ‘getting Trump’ with accusations of familial kickbacks. How is it that a mediocre man who was first elected to the Senate in 1972 as a 29-year-old amassed a net worth of tens of millions of dollars? Did his time as a failing student and plagiariser at the University of Delaware and Syracuse University College of Law, followed by a stint as a vaunted Newcastle County Councilman, sow the seeds of success? Were his book deals and speaking fees in later years so monumental that they explain the Bidens’ wealth? No. Biden enriched himself and his family by abusing his influence and employing family members to help him do so behind the scenes — most notably his son, Hunter.

Stretching all the way back to Biden’s vice presidency under President Obama, who designated the elder Biden his front man on Ukraine, Hunter has been the family bagman. Whether by taking sinecures on the boards of Ukrainian energy companies or dialing up the old man to talk about ‘the weather’ while meeting with powerful Chinese clients, Hunter did the dirty work. He even sold his aesthetically worthless doodles to influence-seeking collectors for hundreds of thousands of dollars. And these activities do not even consider the treasure trove of criminal activity revealed in Hunter’s ‘laptop from hell’. The American people are more than familiar with a First Son who is a corrupt, drug-addled rake who uses his father’s high office for financial gain. Jr’s nonsense will not be to blame if or when the electoral winds blow against Trumpism once again.

To return to the overarching question: Will Don Jr cost the President his second term? No, this will not significantly impact the American public’s perception of President Trump. What will? A failure to deliver on his promises will doom his legacy and any gains made with young, impressionable voters, many of whom supported him for the first time.

And so, we arrive at the singularity — the inevitable conclusion reached by many a Trump skeptic. The President of the United States is — at best — ineffective, and — at worst — outright stupid. Worse still, he has alienated Europe by brokering a settlement between Zelenskyy, Putin, and other key players, a move seen by many as a betrayal of longstanding alliances.

In this pivotal year of 2025, Western Europe finds itself in a politically uncertain era, with its footing less secure than in decades past. The Trump administration's approach — at times dismissive of European sovereignty — has left the continent at a crossroads. Where should Europe look for guidance? Where should it go? Who will guide Europe forward? Should it be China? Some argue that embracing the dragon is the way forward, especially given the claim by the unimpeachable Chinese Premier that their economy grew by 5% — a remarkable feat, if you choose to believe it. Yet, such a statement starkly contrasts with reality: a collapsing real estate market, plummeting consumer confidence, deflation, and a dwindling population.

Where does it leave Europe? Well, Europe is no longer Grace Kelly; rather, she is Marilyn Monroe after a long weekend of pills and disappointment — ghosted by President Kennedy after a half-baked rendition of Happy Birthday. Not entirely fallen, but flickering in a way that should concern us all.

The only sustainable path forward is strengthening its relationship with the United States. This is especially true for the United Kingdom, whose bond with America has been central to its economic and geopolitical standing. A bilateral trade agreement between our nations is in both our interests, reinforcing the deep ties between our businesses, investments, and people. Whatever appeal a short-term romp with China may hold, if that is the implicit alternative for British policy making, it cannot compare to the depth and stability of the alliance between Albion and Old Glory.

But can the good times keep-a-rolling? Is this movement just a flash in the pan? In the short to medium term — specifically, over the next four to eight years of Republican rule — the answer is yes, but only if Trump and his potential successor define Trumpism clearly and build on their newfound 2024 support. For Trumpism to endure, it must deliver real populist results rather than rely on empty rhetoric. The time for vapid slogans is over — now and forever. Trump reached a high-water mark among young and minority men, so his administration must carefully pick and choose its battles. A stronger focus on making housing affordable, deportations, and the usual bread and butter would be wise, while less emphasis should be placed on shock tactics, such as extreme tariffs or expelling graduates over ‘naughty’ speech.

The second presidency of one Donald J. Trump does not depend on the opinions of some would-be-blind Lady Justices casting judgments from afar. The sloppiness of Don Jr. and the eccentricities of Elon Musk will not doom the President. Europe does itself no favors by erupting into fits, threatening to run off with America’s nemesis, China, in some international version of sleeping with your best friend’s girlfriend as revenge. More importantly, if Britain follows Europe’s crumbs into the Sino-basket, it would be committing a grave mistake — akin to a half-baked seppuku.

Lest we forget: this is a President who vanquished the Bush-Clinton dynasties, overcame two impeachments, resurrected himself from political oblivion, dodged a bullet by mere centimeters, and defeated the most detestable Jezebel in American history. These self-evident facts are where our colleagues fall short: they understand Trump to be subject to the rules that have determined the fate of many a doomed politician. Alas! Trump has seized the Fates’ scissors, and now commands his own political dynasty. And this shall continue to be the case until, of course, Mr. Trump cuts his own string.

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Image credits: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0

This article was written by Levi Boone and John Winthrop, two American Pimlico Journal contributors who previously lived in England. Have a pitch? Send it to pimlicojournal@substack.com.

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