The Labour Government — not to mention the strange coterie of ‘Labour right’ figures who still begin to salivate every time that Shabana Mahmood graces their TV screens — has made much of the reduction in net migration numbers which has been seen since the General Election in 2024. In response to last week’s weakening of the government’s immigration reforms, I heard the following from contacts associated with Blue Labour:
‘[Mahmood] is doing everything she can and is still introducing the strictest settlement regime in the western world. She will also preside over close to net zero immigration. Both things beyond anyone [on] the right’s wildest dreams after the 2024 election. If she had full political freedom obviously there would not have been this U-turn, but she does not.’
‘[T]he right basically thinks Shabana wants more immigration, and is just pretending to be hard-line. The truth is the opposite, she wants to be as hard-line as possible, but has to negotiate with her party. That means the announcements like new asylum routes, etc. the right goes a-ha! whereas the reality is they are completely negligible, pitiful numbers, and only done in conjunction with falling numbers. Ditto today. In fact even the U-turn isn’t complete - v significant numbers of care workers will fail to meet the threshold!’
I have no doubt that Mahmood, if she had her druthers, would more or less institute a moratorium on new immigration, and would tighten eligibility criteria for visa renewals and settlement sufficiently to ensure that a significant percentage of recent arrivals had no choice but to return home. Perhaps you disagree. Perhaps even this is insufficient. It does not matter. I have no interest in a Home Secretary who believes in my preferred policies; I want a government that delivers them. The outcomes Mahmood has been able to deliver so far, in the face of resistance from her party, are the proper target for evaluation, not her innermost desires. So — let us evaluate.
