Newsletter #72: What's the score in Gorton and Denton?
PLUS: The defection of 'Cruella' and the future of Reform UK
Good morning,
This week, the battle lines have been drawn for a by-election which will show us exactly where British politics as a whole stands today. In a seat split almost evenly between blue-collar suburbia and Muslim enclaves interspersed with student housing, the Greens and Reform fight to prove which insurgent party has the momentum this time. Elsewhere, the Tory Right has lost yet another MP with the defection of former Home Secretary Suella Braverman to Reform UK following months of speculation.
Inside: Gorton and Denton by-election deep dive (free/paid); Suella Braverman’s defection and the future of Reform’s Parliamentary Party (paid).
Gorton and Denton by-election deep dive
The Gorton and Denton by-election is entering campaign season almost immediately after it was called. Labour chose to hold the election on February 26, providing candidates with a rather short campaigning period. It is very likely that, given their barring of leadership hopeful Andy Burnham from the by-election, they are seeking to minimise the impact it will have on the national conversation and finish this painful chapter as quickly as possible. For his part, Burnham has been briefing loudly against Starmer and the NEC for this decision, especially after press officials aligned with Morgan McSweeney briefed journalists that Burnham was told in advance he would lose the vote. They allege that Burnham then threw his hat into the ring anyway in order to damage Starmer and the Party by forcing a public confrontation. This is certainly an ugly political spat, and not one that anyone wants to draw out further.
Burnham’s elimination has had two major consequences. First, the election is now predicted to be an extremely tight race between the Greens and Reform. The Labour vote is not easy to predict due to the murky dynamics of tactical voting in the constituency — many Labour voters are not sure whether Labour will likely win or lose, the black box of ethnic minority voting patterns in these parts of the country and the lack of conclusive polling results with a sample size above 1000. Secondly, it has cleared the way for two other leadership rivals to begin making manoeuvres — Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner. Already Members of Parliament, they have a much more straightforward path to power.
The first candidate to be announced was the Reform UK candidate: former academic and current GB News Presenter Matthew Goodwin. At an event on January 27th, Matt was announced by Lee Anderson — noticeably not by Farage or anybody more senior — to the surprise of many. It was the general view that Reform would run either Zia Yusuf if they were convinced that the constituency would be easy to win, or a nondescript local candidate if they felt that every single vote counts. Goodwin fits clearly into neither category, indicating that the party sees Gorton and Denton as a toss-up. Like Zia, he is an able communicator, a party loyalist (although there have been rumours his bellicose statements on migration and, allegedly, his open speculation about Reform after Farage, have led to him losing favour), and a more intellectual force in the party. However, he also has local credentials. He attended university in Salford, and his father’s family are from Manchester. In a heated exchange with Owen Jones, Goodwin refuted allegations that he ‘grew up in Hertfordshire’. He apparently spent every weekend in Manchester as a child due to his parents’ divorce. Although there is no way to verify that, the scrutiny on any Reform candidate means Goodwin, who is among the most astute candidates for the party, knows that he would gain nothing by lying and risk looking extremely untrustworthy. This combination of vaguely local credentials and a non-negligible public profile could mean that Reform think they might win this seat, and want to ensure that the MP is someone who is loyal and an asset to the Parliamentary party, but also think it is not the end of the world if they lose.
Reform’s chances in the constituency depend on the extent to which the left-wing/progressive vote can be successfully split, general voter turnout, and whether Reform will manage to appeal to the many left-wing white voters in the Denton area. It is almost certain that Reform’s campaign team have made the correct decision to abandon campaigning in the West of the constituency. This area is populated mainly by progressive-voting students and large Muslim families living in terraced houses. We are referring to the area immediately east of Dane Bank Ward.
While ethnic minorities are, of course, not universally anti-Reform, in the context of this by-election Reform will be maximising the white vote. The two left-wing parties will instead offer various flavours of sectarianism to the West of the constituency. Zack Polanski has already made it very clear that, on the doorstep, a major issue for the Green Party will be the war in Gaza and their policy to immediately suspend all arms sales and intelligence sharing agreements with Israel.
The Denton area defies clear categorisation, which makes this by-election result even more difficult to predict. It is split into four wards, which we will now provide a demographic and economic breakdown of. It is worth bearing in mind that we are highlighting data from the ONS 2021 census — we have therefore omitted information regarding working from home and commutes. The only statistic here that could be skewed by the pandemic is the rate of economic inactivity. The ONS itself reported that self-employed individuals on the furlough scheme should report themselves as employed, which many failed to do:
Denton North:
88.9% White
22% hold a Level 4 qualification or higher
71.8% Car or Van owners
31.6% Outright homeowners (a further 28.3% owned on mortgage)
39% economically inactive
13.3% working in skilled trades
10.8% caring and leisure
12.1% professional occupations
9.9% managers and senior officials
10.2% sales and customer service
Denton East
93.5% White
19.8% hold a Level 4 or above qualification
75.2% Car or Van owners
36.1% Outright homeowners (a further 29.9% owned on mortgage)
40.2% economically inactive
12.3% skilled trades
11.3% caring and leisure
8.9% managers and senior officials
13.1% professional occupations
11.3% sales and customer service
Denton South
92.4% White
21.1% hold a Level 4 or above qualification
71.5% Car or Van owners
29.8% Outright homeowners (a further 25.5% owned on mortgage)
43.8% economically inactive
12.9% skilled trades
11.1% caring and leisure
10.3% managers and senior officials
12.4% professional occupations
9.7% sales and customer service
Denton West
91.9% White
20.3% hold a Level 4 or above qualification
77.8% Car or Van owners
37.8% Outright homeowners (a further 33.1% owned on mortgage)
38.8% economically inactive
13.3% skilled trades
11.1% caring and leisure
9% managers and senior officials
12.2% professional occupations
10.1% sales and customer service
Dane Bank
92.8% White
24.8% hold a Level 4 or above qualification
84.1% Car or Van owners
45.8% Outright homeowners (a further 38.6% owned on mortgage)
38.1% economically inactive
12.1% skilled trades
9.8% caring and leisure
12.1% managers and senior officials
17.7% professional occupations
8.4% sales and customer service
We can see a very consistent set of trends here. The area consists primarily of homeowners, both outright owned and on mortgage. There is an above average rate of economic inactivity (not quite the same as unemployment, since economic activity, according to the ONS, includes those temporarily out of work and seeking it). The vast majority of households own a car or van, and roughly 20% of individuals in each ward have a level 4 qualification or above (highly misleading, as it includes higher level BTECs such as bricklaying but lumps them together with BA degrees). Denton West and Dane Bank are slightly more affluent and likely younger areas, as indicated by the higher rate of mortgage ownership and the higher number of managers and professionals in the area. Across the area, there is a very even split between different employment categories. Denton was overwhelmingly white in 2021, much more so than almost any area of Greater Manchester. Denton can therefore be loosely grouped as a relatively well-off working and lower-middle class area, which has possibly experienced a recent influx of ‘Deanos’, as evidenced by the approximately 10% of individuals working in ‘sales and customer service’ in each area.
In 2024, Denton Northeast, South, and West were all retained by the Labour Party with over 60% of the vote in each ward (although admittedly with turnouts that never exceeded 30%). The Conservatives were the only right-wing opposition in each ward, with Denton North East contested exclusively by the Green Party. In fact, in no election has any right-wing party posed a credible threat to Labour in any of these wards — including UKIP. We cannot reliably say whether this is due to genuine political conviction among locals, or the slavish devotion that the North once gave to the Labour Party because Margaret Thatcher closed the mines and made everyone’s grandfather redundant. What we can say is that the demographics mean Reform must expand past its traditional voter base. The high levels of economic inactivity (again, more likely to be near 30% if we are to believe the ONS’s allegations of misreporting) do create a traditionally ‘Reform’ voter base of disenfranchised, working-class white voters. However, the presence of many professionals in the area means that the race is not as simple as just regurgitating the usual attack lines on immigration.
While he is capable of speaking on economic and public order issues, Goodwin’s bread and butter is immigration. The core anti-migration vote will solidify around Reform, and he prevents any risk of the right somehow splintering. However, the moderate voter from Denton West or Dane Bank, who might be living in a 3-bed with two cars and commuting to a sales job in the City Centre three days a week, may be put off by the wrong messaging. Promising to deport the other half of the constituency is to be avoided. The Northern middle class is a very different creature to its southern counterpart, and certainly more open to voting for Reform. Based on personal experience, they form the backbone of most constituency associations. However, most voters really do decide based on ‘vibes’ who they shall vote for. Goodwin is at risk of simply ‘chudding out’ on the doorstep too often about birth rates and what it means to be English, when the average voter’s opinion still boils down to ‘Nigerian NHS nurses can stay even if the illegals are wronguns’. We must remember that the Green Party are surprisingly strong in the Denton wards, and have been since at least 2023, after the Conservatives reached the peak of their ‘Covid’ vote.
There have been interesting focus groups in the area conducted by More in Common, focusing on last year’s Labour voters. They can be read here. Overall, they indicate a left determined to stop Reform but too sectarian and disunited to figure out the best tactical vote. This particular focus group confirmed the strength of Burnham’s personal vote, as well as that a desire for change motivated them to vote for Labour in 2024. Many intend to vote Green to stick with that desire for change, and fear the rise of Reform. The key issue is that nobody really knows which party — Labour or Greens — has the best chance of beating Reform.
The Green Party have selected Hannah Spencer, the leader of the Green group on Trafford council, to be their candidate. Spencer is a 34-year-old plasterer who has lived in the constituency her whole life, left school at 16, and was first elected to the council in 2023. In an interview with the Middle East Eye, she reiterated that she will stand to oppose Reform’s policies of ‘division’ — specifically Goodwin’s comments that some British-born Muslims are not necessarily British. The selection of an unmarried, white, young, working woman in a Parliamentary seat where the Green Party were thought to be competing with both the outright sectarian Workers Party and the established Labour Party is certainly a bold choice. Rumours that Zack Polanski would stand were quashed within days, perhaps due to him being Jewish, and deputy leader Mohin Ali also confirmed he would not stand. Spencer’s selection indicates that the Green Party seek to use this by-election to present themselves as the only left-wing alternative to the Labour Party, and will be competing directly with Reform for disenchanted Labour voters. Indeed, the previously mentioned focus group indicated the presence of several ‘Reform-Green’ marginal voters, who simply want to vote for a radical party promising change, rather than explicitly endorsing a right-wing or left-wing political platform.
