Newsletter #71: Is Burnham coming to Westminster?
PLUS: Reform shadow cabinet rumours, local elections cancelled
Good morning,
It’s another awful week for Keir Starmer, as an MP’s resignation gives Andy Burnham the chance to lay down the gauntlet. We feel so sorry for him. Plus, speculation builds about Reform’s ‘shadow cabinet’.
This newsletter’s agenda: Andrew Gwynne resigns — will Andy Burnham finally have his chance to challenge Starmer? (free); Turning points at Davos (paid); Local election delays confirmed (paid)
Andrew Gwynne resigns — will Andy Burnham finally have his chance to challenge Starmer?
On Thursday, long-serving Labour MP for Gorton and Denton Andrew Gwynne announced that he would stand down as a Member of Parliament. Gwynne was previously suspended by the Labour Party on February 8th 2025 after a series of WhatsApp messages were leaked from a group chat titled “Trigger me Timbers”, in which Gwynne made impolitic comments about an elderly constituent. Months ago, it was heavily rumoured that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was in talks with Gwynne about potentially contesting his seat following a resignation. At the time, both sides strongly denied the allegations. The two are known to be personal friends as well as close political allies, and with Gorton being one of the few remaining seats in Manchester in which the Labour Party is still competitive, it seemed like a sensible choice for Burnham.
It now seems that the delay to Gwynne’s resignation was due to ongoing negotiations with the Parliamentary estate over his pension, which he will now receive in full, having officially retired on health grounds. Gwynne’s statement remained vague, publishing a doctor’s note which suggests his mental and physical health would make it impossible to continue in position, and as such it has been underreported that the cause of his retirement is in fact long covid. His ‘struggles’ with this ‘condition’ have been known for some time in Westminster, but it is nevertheless an embarrassing end to a long parliamentary career.
After allowing speculation to build over the following days, Burnham announced on Saturday that he had put himself forward to stand in the upcoming by-election. That is, however, only the beginning of his journey back to Westminster. First, he will have to receive permission from a subcommittee of the party’s National Executive Committee to enter the shortlist. That subcommittee is made up of 10 out of the NEC’s 41 members:
Shabana Mahmood (Chair of the NEC, Home Secretary)
Mahmood is firmly on the right of the party, loosely associated with Blue Labour, and a close ally in particular of Morgan McSweeney. It would be easy to assume, given that her commitment to tightening immigration rules has invoked deep resistance from the left, that she would be strongly opposed to giving Burnham the chance to challenge Starmer and shift the party away from the center. Nevertheless, she is personally close with Burnham and has reportedly been in conversation with him in recent months. Whilst many assume she might mount her own (undoubtedly doomed) leadership bid in the event of a contest, or get in behind fellow centrist Wes Streeting, she may well look to throw her lot in with Burnham’s more promising candidacy. Ultimately though, her front bench position makes it ultimately unlikely she will refuse demands from Starmer to block his candidacy. In the event of a tie, Mahmood would have the casting vote.
Peter Wheeler (Vice Chair of the NEC)
Wheeler is a councillor from Cheshire and long-time party stooge. He is considered to be on the right of the party, and is unlikely to favour Burnham’s candidacy.
Lucy Powell (Deputy Leader)
Lucy Powell, Labour’s recently elected deputy leader, is a Burnham ally from the soft left, but has positioned herself as a stabiliser and a peacemaker since taking position, reportedly feeling it would be wrong to use her position to make trouble for the government. She has come out in favour of allowing Burnham to stand.
Mike Payne (NEC Treasurer)
Payne is MP for Gedling, having first stood for Parliament in Newark at the 2014 by-election that brought Robert Jenrick to the House. He has a relatively low public profile, but supported Bridget Phillipson in the leadership election (the candidate of the party’s right and that preferred by Starmer). As Treasurer, he will be particularly concerned with the fact that a Mayoral by-election triggered by Burnham’s resignation would cost the party a forecast £5m. He will almost certainly oppose Burnham’s candidacy.
Ellie Reeves (Frontbench Representative)
Ellie Reeves, sister of Rachel, is MP for Lewisham West and East Dulwich and serves in Starmer’s cabinet as Solicitor General. She faced an aborted deselection challenge after signing a letter criticising the re-admission of Corbynite Chris Williamson into Labour after he was suspended over antisemitism allegations. She is a firm Starmer ally, and will oppose Burnham’s candidacy.
Keiran O’Neill (Union Representative, GMB) & Tom Williams (Union Representative, USDAW)
Neither of the subcommittee’s two union representatives have made public comments on Burnham’s candidacy, nor have the leadership of their unions. Whilst the TUC in general has been shifting left, those unions most supportive of Burnham have been excluded from the process.
Abdi Duale (Constituency Labour Parties Representative)
Duale has not stated anything publicly about Burnham, but his social media activity indicates he is to the right of the party.
Gurinder Singh Josan (Parliamentary Labour Party Representative)
Gurinder Josan, MP for Smethwick, trustee of HOPE Not Hate, and the biggest landlord in Parliament, is a lesser known character, but was heavily involved in the pursuit of Corbynites over antisemitism allegations and is the convenor of ‘old Labour right’ Labour First Parliamentary Network. He is unlikely to align with Burnham.
Keir Starmer
The tenth member of the subcommittee is, of course, Keir Starmer himself. Unsurprisingly, he is thought to be less than eager about allowing Burnham into Parliament.
Based on this list, it would seem that Starmer does indeed have the majority to block Burnham from standing — and with a decision expected later today (Sunday), there is not a great deal of time for supporters of the Manchester Mayor to change that. Ed Milliband and Sadiq Khan have both come out in favour of allowing Burnham to stand, and whilst Angela Rayner has not officially commented her allies have been heavily briefing on his behalf. Rayner is thought to be reluctant to take on the leadership herself, and presumably wishes to allow Burnham to do so in order to prevent a Wes Streeting coronation. Nevertheless, reporting indicates the plan is still to block Burnham’s candidacy. This could be justified by imposing an all female or all BAME list, or simply by stating that the party does not wish to create a by-election in Manchester which Reform would have a strong chance of winning.
Blocking Burnham will come at enormous political cost to Starmer — especially given the overwhelming likelihood that Labour would lose the by-election as a result. Zack Polanski, leader of the Green Party, is understood to be considering standing himself (he is originally from Manchester) and would almost certainly do so if Burnham were taken out of the running. The Greens will do well in Gorton and Denton regardless, but with the support of disaffected Burnham voters the seat will become a straight contest between them and Reform. Losing what has historically been the definition of a safe seat, especially given the extent of concerns over a prospective wipe-out by Reform across their post-industrial heartlands, would confirm that the result in Runcorn and Helsby was no fluke, and that Labour stands to be reduced to catastrophic lows under Starmer’s leadership. Whilst concerns over a Mayoral by-election are entirely reasonable, they will not assuage the anger of the left at what will be seen as a stitch-up by a failing Prime Minister desperate to hold onto power.
If Burnham were allowed through, could he even win in Gorton and Denton? Polling indicates that the seat will be a three-way toss-up between Labour, the Greens, and Reform. More in Common's January MRP has the seat going to Reform, and of the two biggest national vote share based projections (Election Maps UK and Electoral Calculus) one has it going to Labour and the other to the greens. Demographically, the West of the constituency will be the primary battleground between Labour and the Greens, including Denton and the Manchester ward of Burnage. Both are majority minority areas with a heavy Asian population. Denton, in contrast, is overwhelmingly White, and relatively deprived — strong Reform territory. An explicitly Muslim candidate could complicate the picture further. All of these analytics, however, are based on the prospect of a generic candidate. Burnham has a strong personal vote, and would effectively be running against the national party. It is therefore highly likely that he would consolidate the anti-Starmer vote, and that that would propel him to victory.
In that event, Burnham would have to resign as Manchester Mayor, triggering a by-election for the position. Whilst no polling exists for that eventuality, Reform’s position across the area would put them in pole position. One might expect a strong Green performance as well, making a Labour victory all the more difficult. It may, however, be to the benefit of Reform to avoid this possibility. Despite the predictions that performance in local government would be crucial to their continued popularity, most have continued to ignore the affairs of councils as they typically do. This is broadly a good thing — whilst there have been some relatively successful Reform administrations, many have struggled with inexperience and lack of agency due to statutory obligations (most notably in Kent). A Reform Mayor, however, would have a substantially higher profile, and could therefore pose a risk to their national image.
A final note — it has been suggested that Zia Yusuf could stand as the party’s candidate in Gorton and Denton, no doubt in part on the basis that he might secure at least a small percentage of the Asian vote, or at least reduce the vehemence of opposition from that group to a Reform campaign. Whilst that reasoning is not unfounded, this would be a mistake for the party and for Yusuf individually. Pimlico Journal has been supportive of Yusuf’s role, and having him in Parliament would be no bad thing — but there is little to be gained at the moment from risking a loss which would damage the party and Yusuf’s place within it when he already has a sufficiently high profile. Beyond that, listening to speeches from Ed Davey and responding to constituent’s petty concerns seems a poor use of time for the man primarily responsible for constructing Reform’s party machine.
