Newsletter #39: Reform not-very-UK's week of Americanisation

PLUS: Large-scale internal Labour Party assault launched against Rachel Reeves

Good morning.

One day, I’ll get back into the habit of writing these on Sunday evenings, rather than being forced to postpone them to Monday evening…

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This was the second week in a row that, for me, was dominated by the headline-grabbing activities of Reform UK. But beyond Reform, we’re also looking at an interesting (and somewhat ominous) article in the Financial Times on gilts, and, along with this, the increasing internal pressure in the Labour Party against Rachel Reeves.

This newsletter’s agenda: Reform not-very-UK? A week of Americanisation (free/paid); Large-scale internal Labour Party assault launched against Rachel Reeves (paid).

Reform not-very-UK? A week of Americanisation

It was another week in which Reform UK dominated the headlines. But while last week, Reform UK seemed to be taking their cues (probably unintentionally) from Europe, in the sense of their pivot leftwards on economics, this week, they have been taking their cues (probably intentionally) from the United States. Let me explain.

The week began with a press conference which, while billed as a press conference in which Farage would ‘give his pitch to working people’, actually ended up being mostly about staking out a pro-family, pro-natalist policy programme (something which certainly surprised me). Farage stated that he wanted it to be easier for people to have more children. In my view, while birth rates are entirely valid as a concern (though I have my doubts about the efficacy of fiscal incentives), this is not very ‘British’. While many countries, from France, to Poland and Hungary, to the United States, have had a political culture of pro-natalism, I see little evidence of it having had much practical political importance here.

So where does this new(ish) interest come from? I would guess, ‘America’ — especially Elon Musk, who Reform have always been eager to please, and viewed with some interest. This interpretation seems even more plausible based on their activities over the rest of the week. ‘Britain's declining birth rate is a national challenge’, declared Reform MP James McMurdock on X. Not a typical declaration in Britain.

For Farage, an increase in birth rates would, rather implausibly, be achieved through removing the two-child benefit cap, a proposal which I strongly criticised last week. Farage seems to have (partially) responded to these criticisms by asserting that ‘…I want to emphasise that this is aimed at British families. It’s not aimed at those that come into the country and suddenly decide to have a lot of children.’ Obviously, this is meaningless (at best) without further detail on how these restrictions would be achieved in practice.

On a somewhat more positive note, Farage also stated that he would support an increase in tax breaks for married couples (though this was a policy that was already in the Reform manifesto in 2024, and is not actually new). Helpfully, he added that ‘…he was “not moralising” on the subject of marriage, adding that his own “track record was not so good on this”, having been divorced twice’ (BBC). This was a good addition to the speech, as — perhaps I am wrong! — I do not think that Britain likes prigs, even in the debased world of 2025. Trump, of course, is the perfect example of the benefits of ‘not being a prig’. No prig could get away with what he’s gotten away with.