Newsletter #28: Should we 'unite the right'?

PLUS: What's next for Rupert Lowe; and global recession fears mount

Good morning.

Today, we speculate about what Rupert Lowe will do next, now that his break with Reform appears to be complete and total. But first: should we ‘unite the right’? (No, not that kind of ‘unite the right’ — the good kind.)

This newsletter’s agenda: Should we ‘unite the right’? (free); What’s next for Rupert Lowe? (paid); Global recession fears mount as UK economy contracts in January (paid).

Should we ‘unite the right’?

This Saturday, Tim Shipman reported on growing efforts to ‘unite the right’ in the form of some kind of pact, or merger, between Reform UK and the Conservative Party. He writes:

This weekend it can be revealed that a significant number of senior Conservatives are concluding that if Sir Keir Starmer, the current favourite to win the next election, is to be stopped, Farage is the horse they will have to put their money on. MPs, donors and former party aides have been meeting in secret to draw up a campaign to ‘Unite the Right’, with even moderate Tories now prepared to see Farage as prime minister to stop Labour.

This is an interesting article for a number of reasons. Firstly, it shows that in Britain, no-one — including ‘major donors’ — is really interested in pursuing a cordon sanitaire line, even ‘moderate Tories’. This is undoubtedly a good thing, as it will prevent the bed-blocking that has become common on the Continent…

But before we get into things, Shipman also reports that in December, Dominic Cummings buried the hatchet and met with Nigel Farage:

The most interesting meeting Farage has had in the past few months, however, took place before Christmas in conditions of far greater secrecy. It was then that the Reform leader met Dominic Cummings, campaign director of Vote Leave, who was credited both with helping Boris Johnson win a landslide in the 2019 election and then with bringing him down three years later. Once bitter enemies, Cummings and Farage rowed for years over who was really responsible for Brexit and who is more toxic with the public.

The interesting thing is that the conversation focused not only on how to win power but on what to do with it, evidence Farage is already taking seriously the idea he could become prime minister. A Reform source confirmed that ‘Nigel and Dom did have a meeting — they discussed how to take on the blob’, Cummings’ description of the Whitehall bureaucracy he blames for holding Britain back.

I have also heard rumours of Cummings being seen in Reform’s headquarters much more recently. I personally doubt whether this will come to anything — and, as Shipman notes, ‘…both sides are adamant Cummings is not going to work for Farage’ — but we shall see.

But back to the main matter at hand, ‘uniting the right’:

Several of those involved in the conversations say a campaign is due to be launched in the next few weeks, ahead of the May local elections, urging Reform and the Conservatives to work more closely together…

The Unite the Right campaign will be ‘explicitly agnostic’ about whether this means co-operation on shared policy areas such as immigration, a non-aggression pact so each party focuses on the seats it can win, a formal electoral pact or a full-blown merger or takeover of one party by the other, in order to maximise support.

One model being openly discussed is the relationship between the German centre-right parties. ‘Tories and Reform should become the CDU-CSU,’ a former Conservative adviser said. ‘Tories in the south, Reform in the north.’ Teased that this was a very European solution for the Eurosceptic parties, the source said the goal was the same as in the Second World War PoW film: ‘Escape to victory.’

At the moment, Farage and his closest aides are opposed to any sort of deal with the Conservatives, believing they are on the verge of an electoral breakthrough in the local elections on May 1 that will give them the momentum to become the main opposition party. ‘There is no deal,’ a Reform spokesman said. “The only reason the Tories are talking about it is because their poll ratings are about to fall off a cliff.’

These comments show just how out-of-touch the Conservative Party is with the current political situation. ‘Tories in the south, Reform in the north’, says ‘a former Conservative adviser’. Has he bothered looking at a map of where Reform’s seats currently are? Indeed, even beyond that, has he looked at where many of Reform’s top target seats are?

There is no real possibility of this kind of deal for the basic reason that Reform are currently primarily eating into the Tory vote in Tory areas. While it is true that their relative support over the Conservatives is probably highest in the North and Wales, their absolute support in many parts of the South (and in particular, Essex and Kent) is higher. And, for the most part, absolute support is what matters in winning seats.

This also shows just how deeply post-liberal slop has penetrated the thinking of otherwise (I presume) intelligent people. Any geographical split between Reform and the Tories would be far more messy than this. Among the most solidly Conservative seats in the country are now the Scottish borders seats. Certain other rural seats in northern England, such as Ribble Valley, are similarly unfriendly to Reform. Meanwhile, as readers I am sure are aware, Reform does well in large parts of the East of England.

This is not to deny that Britain fundamentally needs there to be no real competition among right-wing parties, lest we hopelessly split the vote and allow in the Left by default. That much is obvious. And it’s easy for me to criticise without suggesting any solutions. So what should those who wish to ‘unite the right’ do? Well, most importantly: they should just wait. There’s no point entertaining some kind of pact until there is a clear notion of the standing of the main players. When Reform think there’s a chance that they can ‘unite the right’ by simply destroying the Conservative Party, why would they agree to anything? (And, conversely, if the Conservatives still think that Reform are ephemeral, a widespread view bolstered by Lowe’s removal, then the same applies.) If you can’t even determine who the senior partner in the agreement is, then you can’t determine anything.

But when the time comes, it’s important that the Conservatives go into any kind of negotiations with an understanding that no, Reform are not a ‘northern’ party. And nor are the Conservatives a ‘southern’ party. You just cannot draw the boundaries on such a clean basis. While such a division would — as the CDU-CSU comparison suggests — provide the basis for a genuine, long-term agreement, which would keep both parties in an independent existence for some time, the difficulties involved in it are insuperable. The Tories, for instance, aren’t going to just give up seats like Witham or South Holland and the Deepings in a pact that grants (more accurately) ‘the East’ to Reform, or Ribble Valley in a pact that (less accurately) grants ‘the North’ to them. Insofar as an agreement is even possible, it’s much better to aim at a short-term agreement on a more seat-by-seat basis, and to move from there.

There is, at least, a general understanding among these plotters that Badenoch is not conducive to their ends:

Where Farage and the Unite the Right people agree is that Badenoch is not the right leader to bring them together.

…

“We’ll get her out sharpish,” one plotter said. “More and more MPs realise she’s doomed. A grid is coming together to bury her in disaster from the locals, keep the pressure on, then f*** [up] conference,” the party’s annual get-together in October. If that does not force Badenoch out, many think the final straw could be the Welsh elections in the spring of 2026, which polls currently suggest Reform will win. That would be the moment when someone more open to an arrangement with Reform could take over.

The assumption of many is that Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, would be likely to emerge as leader, though others have not ruled out a return by Johnson.

The mention of Johnson is ominous, though I wouldn’t give too much thought to it. Quite aside from the fact — mentioned by Shipman — that he presided over the explosion in immigration that angered so many, he will also presumably need a safe-ish seat. It’s not clear where he will be able to get one from as things stand, though as J’accuse say: we should always be on guard against Johnson, the worst Prime Minister in modern British history.

What’s next for Rupert Lowe?