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Alastair's avatar

This article conflates technological possibility with social reality. It reads more like re-hashed 90s fiction than serious forecasting.

On genetic engineering: Intelligence is not governed by a single gene or even a handful of genes. It emerges from thousands of genetic variants, each with minuscule individual effects. This polygenic complexity makes meaningful enhancement through gene editing practically impossible with foreseeable technology. While eliminating specific hereditary diseases is plausible, the leap to "building a new people" is pure fantasy.

More importantly, the article ignores the human element entirely. We struggle to convince parents to vaccinate their children with thoroughly tested, decades-old vaccines. What makes anyone think they'll consent to experimental genetic modifications for potential, marginal cognitive gains? Even ignoring any ethical concerns, the gap between technical possibility and public acceptance is a chasm, not a minor obstacle.

On AI displacement: The assumption that AI will rapidly eliminate jobs in law, finance, and consulting ignores how regulation actually works. These industries don't operate as free markets moving at the speed of innovation. They exist under heavy regulation where human accountability is legally mandated. Aviation still relies on technology from the 1960s. Nuclear energy deployment remains frozen in time. Major banks run on COBOL code from half a century ago. Healthcare AI that demonstrably outperforms human diagnosticians still requires human sign-off. In regulated industries, technology waits (sometimes forever).

Middle management exists primarily to navigate Byzantine regulatory requirements, and those requirements aren't disappearing. The article envisions AI handling "procedural implementation" seamlessly, but doesn't seem to grasp a crucial difference: when an intern makes a mistake, you fire the intern. When your AI makes a mistake, you get fired and possibly sued. In industries where errors carry professional liability, this matters enormously!

Every AI researcher acknowledges that large language models hallucinate. This stems from their architecture, not from implementation flaws that will be patched away. In industries where precision matters, "usually right" doesn't suffice.

On Africa: The article frames African food imports as evidence of inherent incapacity while ignoring that Western aid often comes with conditions requiring recipient nations to purchase from donor countries. These stipulations deliberately distort local agricultural markets. Remove those distortions, and local production becomes far more viable. If Western nations stopped provided billions in aid each year the local economies would likely shift to doing more local agriculture. It is hardly like it's difficult for most African countries to grow food, Rhodesia was known as a breadbasket.

The fundamental error here is mistaking a theoretical capability for practical reality. The article assumes away every obstacle that actually matters: regulatory frameworks, liability structures that demand human accountability, and the simple fact that most people will not volunteer their children for genetic experiments. This analysis operates in a frictionless vacuum where technology advances well beyond it's current realms, deploys instantly, institutions adapt on command, and human nature bends to fit the preferred narrative.

The real world doesn't work this way. Powerful technologies don't remake society simply because they exist. They encounter resistance, get regulated into stasis, or sit unused because the risks of adoption exceed the benefits. We literally have an example of this with Nuclear, it was all the rage until a few accidents and then was put into societal cold-storage. The gap between what AI and genetic engineering could theoretically accomplish and what they will actually be permitted to do isn't a footnote to be dismissed. It is the entire story!

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There and Where's avatar

Interesting article.

It misses two important words: Humanoid Robots.

The sentence above would have seemed absurd 20 years ago but encapsulates the really big change that will overwhelm society within 20 years. AI is just the beginning. AI that can do your garden, thread a needle, fix your electrics, escort you round your supermarket... Humanoid Robots will leave no spaces at all for human employment.

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