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Are the Tories back?

What do the polls really tell us about Reform’s decline, and how to reverse it?

Pimlico Journal
Oct 09, 2026
∙ Paid

The Conservative Party is on top of the world — at least, they feel like they are as they return home from a party conference that was by all reports as jubilant as it was uneventful and bask in the assumption that their sensibility has been vindicated by a year of setbacks for Reform. Kemi Badenoch’s position within the party has never been stronger, and despite his somewhat flat conference speech the membership remains convinced that Andrew Griffith’s unbelievable fiscal gravitas — now centre-stage following Mel Stride’s defenestration in August’s reshuffle — will prove irresistible to a public soon to be hit by yet another tax-raising budget. Reading the pages of The Telegraph, one would assume the party is ten points ahead in the polls and on track to win the next general election.

So imperial has been their victory that not even they have even cowed their old enemies on the left into shying away from their usual vitriol. Sure, voters might still be angry at the Tory party — but the age old hatred of Tories themselves has visibly abated as the sights and fears of the left turn towards Reform. But as one young man at conference put it, there is only one reason for this: nobody cares any more. The great Tory comeback was the only conversation at Conservative Party Conference. It is only a conversation at Conservative Party Conference. Outside of Lord Ashcroft’s blatant propaganda and a few cherry picked examples, the polls tell a very different story — and one which suggests clear lessons for Reform.

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